Apple Exports 2.9 Million iPhones from India to US Despite Trump’s Tariff Threat, China Sees Sharp Decline
Apple’s strategic shift in iPhone manufacturing has taken a significant turn, with India emerging as a key export hub despite geopolitical pressures from the United States. In April, Apple exported approximately 2.9 million iPhones from India to the US, marking a staggering 76% year-on-year increase, according to global technology research firm Omdia. This sharp rise comes even as US President Donald Trump has pushed Apple CEO Tim Cook to move production away from India and relocate it to American soil. However, the tech giant seems undeterred, continuing its production diversification strategy with a clear pivot away from China.
The latest data highlights a significant downturn in Chinese iPhone exports to the US, which fell 76% in April compared to the same month last year—dropping from 3.7 million units to just 900,000. Counterpoint Research’s preliminary estimates also confirm the surge, placing India’s April iPhone exports to the US between 2.9 and 3 million units. This shift is particularly noteworthy in light of US retaliatory tariffs targeting countries with substantial trade surpluses, including China. The dip in April exports compared to March is attributed to Apple’s intensified shipping efforts before the April 2 tariff deadline, a strategic move to minimize financial impact.
Despite the Trump administration’s renewed threat to impose a 25% tariff on iPhones not manufactured within the US, Apple appears to have calculated the cost-benefit scenario thoroughly. Analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo of TF Securities emphasize that manufacturing iPhones in the US would drastically inflate consumer prices, with Pro models potentially exceeding $3,000—nearly triple the current price point—due to higher labor costs and the complexity of rebuilding Apple’s vast supply chain domestically. Thus, taking a tariff hit seems more financially viable than relocating production to the US.
India’s expanding role in Apple’s global supply chain is backed by major investments. Foxconn, Apple’s primary contract manufacturer, recently announced a £1.5 billion investment to scale up operations in Chennai. The company is also launching a new facility in Karnataka, with iPhone shipments expected to begin in June. Meanwhile, Tata Electronics, now Apple’s second-largest iPhone assembler in India, is significantly boosting production at its Hosur plant. Tata has also gained control over Pegatron’s local facility, thereby enhancing its manufacturing footprint.
Although India’s infrastructure and workforce development in electronics manufacturing have made significant progress, industry experts caution that the country may not be able to completely meet the US market’s demand in the near term. The US consumes roughly 20 million iPhones every quarter, and India’s current trajectory suggests it will only meet about 80% of that demand by 2026. Still, India has made notable strides, now producing high-end iPhone models like the Pro and Pro Max, signaling growing technical and operational capabilities.
Apple is carefully navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, balancing its strategic interests between China, the US, and India. While China continues to play a dominant role in Apple’s manufacturing ecosystem, housing over 200 essential suppliers, a full shift to the US is neither logistically practical nor economically sensible. Industry experts like Sanyam Chaurasia from Canalys underline that Apple’s China operations are too deeply embedded to be uprooted without significant disruption.
As Apple continues to expand its India operations and manage global production risks, the current trajectory reinforces India’s position as a pivotal player in Apple’s long-term strategy. The Cupertino-based company is clearly focused on optimizing its global supply chain while navigating political and economic headwinds.
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